Vladimir Vernikov “The first socially oriented budget of the left coalition in Spain.” Analytical papers №47, 2020 (№230)
The article is dedicated to the state budget of Spain for 2021 adopted by the Congress of Deputies and approved by the Senate in December 2020. It is the first socially oriented document of the first leftist coalition government of PSRP and Podemos party in post-Franco period. The author analyzes the complex process of negotiations, major items of budget expenditures and prospects for its implementation.
Boris Guseletov “Results of parliamentary election in Romania.” Analytical papers №46, 2020 (№229)
The article examines the results of parliamentary elections in Romania in December 2020. The results of leading political parties are compared to elections 2016. The author analyzes the results of activities of a number of governments led by Social Democratic party, formed after elections 2016, and reviews activities of the government of L. Orban, leader of National Liberal party of Romania (NLPR), formed in October 2018. The article describes «Union for the Salvation of Romania-PLUS» party, that was elected to the Parliament in December 2020 and, most likely, will take part in formation of the new government together with NLPR. A forecast is given on how the results of elections might affect further transformation of the party-political system in Romania and relations between Russia and Romania.
Boris Guseletov “Results of parliamentary election in the Republic of Lithuania.” Analytical papers №45, 2020 (№228)
The author examines the results of parliamentary elections held in the Republic of Lithuania in October 2020. Leading political parties of the country are analyzed and results of their participation in 2016 parliamentary elections are compared with recent elections. The results of outgoing government led by a representative of «Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens» party S. Skvernyalis are summed up. «Union of the Fatherland-Lithuanian Christian Democrats» party, that won the recent elections, and its leader I. Simonite, who will become the new Prime Minister of Lithuania, are examined. The author forecasts how the results of elections might affect further transformation of party and political system of the Republic of Lithuania.
Anatoliy Bazhan, Sergey Roginko “EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: status, risks and possible response.” Analytical papers №44, 2020 (№227)
Subject of the analysis is the EU initiative of introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, developed within the framework of the «European Green Deal» adopted in 2019. The authors analyze in detail the origin of European border carbon tax initiatives, draw a parallel between the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the early EU initiatives on carbon taxation of flights of foreign airlines to airports in the EU countries. The article describes the tactics used by the European Union to develop the details of the proposed mechanism and to promote it on the international arena. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of the risks of Russian export-oriented sectors in case of introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and possible responses from the Russian side.
Alexey Sindeev “Germany and a new start in transatlantic relations.” Analytical papers №43, 2020 (№226)
This analytical note examines the position of leading representatives of FRG political elite regarding the possibility of a "new deal" with the United States in the post-Trump period. The note consists of three parts: in the first, the problem is formulated; secondly, the chronology of events is presented and their analysis is given; in the third, intermediate conclusions and hypotheses are expressed. The urgency of the problem requires additional study, including the Franco-German tandem.
Natalia Plevako “New Trends in Swedish Defense Policy.” Analytical papers №42, 2020 (№225)
The article examines new trends in Swedish defense policy, reflected in the draft law prepared by the Defense Committee. According to it, the defense budget should be increased by 40% over 5 years (from 2021 to 2025) to reach 1.5% GDP, thus, elevating the defense policy to a new qualitative level. The document focuses on the security policy, activation of which is directly related to the deterioration of international situation, in particular, in the North of Europe. Russia is blamed for the growing tensions, and the possibility of an armed attack on Sweden is not excluded. In this regard, the emphasis is made on creating a system of joint security to be implemented in partnership not only with Finland, Sweden's main ally, but also with other Nordic countries, as well as the US and NATO. There are almost no contradictions between political parties about the need for such cooperation, but the government of Social Democrats and Greens do not include the idea of joining NATO in the agenda.
Marina Kolesnikova “The Green Recovery of the EU: marine components.” Analytical papers №41, 2020 (№224)
On September 16, the President of European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in her speech to the European Parliament, presented the EU's action program for overcoming the pandemic crisis, as well as further Green Recovery. The EU's transition to new economic, environmental and social positions with the goal to set a global development agenda requires comprehensive structural and technological reforms. These requirements are based on the use of EU Maritime / Blue Economy and determine ways of its development, including individual industry and regional directions.
Nikolay Mezhevich “Multi-vector policy and actual sovereignty in Russian-Belarussian relations.” Analytical papers №40, 2020 (№223)
The paper explains key issues of foreign policy choices currently pursued by the Republic of Belarus. The concept of sovereignty and actual constraints of “true sovereignty” in the modern world are analyzed. The Belarusian foreign trade structure is examined in the context of history and current multi-vector practices of the country. The absence of alternative to Russian-Belarussian integration is demonstrated.
Anna Ayvazyan “Violation of armistice between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” Analytical papers №39, 2020 (№222)
On September 27, 2020, military clashes between united army of Armenia, NagornoKarabakh Republic and Azerbaijan started on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), resulting in civilian casualties. Confrontation did happen in previous years, but has never taken such a scale. Preconditions were created by the crisis in internal politics and economy of both countries as a consequence of the pandemic, on the one hand, and on the other – potential involvement of third parties, namely Turkey, into the conflict. Intermediary efforts of the OSCE Minsk group have not brought any results. The local conflict might turn into a regional crisis in longer perspective, if a solution is not found. Russia’s position in the conflict remains distanced.
Mikhail Vedernikov “The second wave of the pandemic in the Czech Republic: the first political consequences.” Analytical papers №38, 2020 (№221)
On September 21, 2020, Czech Minister of Health A. Voitech resigned, following the sharp increase of detected COVID-19 cases. This measure was caused by the desire of the country's PM to find a sacrificial goat. Besides, it was one of the elements of current election campaign for municipal authorities and the Senate. Prime Minister's movement ANO, which previously was not able to successfully perform in those elections, is interested in higher support from voters. The resignation of Voitech was designed to keep the positive image of Babiš government, to show its readiness to compromise and listen to opinions of both the opposition and the population in general.
Vladislav Belov “Hydrogen energy: a new niche of Russian-German cooperation.” Analytical papers №37, 2020 (№220)
On September 17, 2020, the Russian-German Chamber of Commerce in Moscow held a constituent meeting of the Hydrogen Initiative Group. The event took place against the backdrop of the growing threats of US and EU sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 project and deterioration of Russian-European relations. It drew attention to the following important events of summer 2020: Russia and Germany in early June 2020 and the EU in early July presented their strategies for the development of hydrogen energy – an area that will determine the future of global energy market. Russia and Germany have good prospects of becoming its main players, first of all, in Europe. The note analyzes the prospects for possible cooperation in this area.
Vladislav Belov “The significance of communal elections in North Rhine-Westphalia for party-political processes in Germany.” Analytical papers №36, 2020 (№219)
The municipal elections held on September 13, 2020 in the largest federal state of Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia, confirmed the main party-political trends in the leading state: the strengthening of positions of CDU, Green/Union 90 and Alternative for Germany, the ongoing SPD crisis and search for their new identity as "left" and free democrats. The paper analyzes the election results, assesses the political prospects of the Prime Minister of the land A. Lashet, as well as the interaction of Christian Democrats and the Greens at the federal level and its significance for the future Russian-German cooperation.
Natalia Kondratieva “On the prospects of the EAEU and ways to increase its role in the international arena.” Analytical papers №35, 2020 (№218)
The paper considers the problem of stability and resilience of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the context of the current internal political crisis in Belarus. Analysis of activities of the Union institutions in January-August 2020 is carried out. New developments in the political and legal support of integration in all of its main areas have been identified; there is stable positive integration dynamics; Belarus is serving as the Chairman of the EAEU in 2020 up to the present time. Recommendations are given for formation of a broad strategy for the Union's resilience in view of internal and external risks, based on international experience.
Nikolay Mezhevich “Belarus: political and economic prerequisites for the future crisis.” Analytical papers №34, 2020 (№217)
Presidential elections were held in the Republic of Belarus on August 9, 2020. The election results caused protests, both in the country and outside it. The author analyzes some factors that led to the aggravation of long-standing problems, in particular, changes in the socio-economic and demographic structure of the society. The role of Russia in formation of the Belarusian economic model is shown. A separate section is devoted to analysis of the electoral support for President Alexander Lukashenko before the elections on August 9 election.
Natalia Plevako “Sweden and the challenges of the EU economic recovery.” Analytical papers №33, 2020 (№216)
On July 17-21, 2020, the EU summit in Brussels reviewed and approved the budget for 2021-2027. Recovery Fund was formed for countries and industries affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Sweden is a donor country in the EU, and the amount of contributions in the form of grants and loans proposed by the European Commission raised objections in political circles of this country. They were primarily concerned with the grants to the affected countries. A compromise decision was reached, where the countries of the "frugal four" (Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden) achieved significant reduction of the grants and partial return of contributions (rebates).
Olga Potemkina “A new security strategy of the EU.” Analytical papers №32, 2020 (№215)
The author analyses the new Security Union Strategy (SUS) for 2020-2025, presented by the EU Commission, replacing the previous European Security Agenda. Noting that the new strategy repeats inherent tasks of its predecessor, the author reveals the SUS distinctive features due to the current situation in the European Union, including consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. It is stressed that today the EU views its security in a broader sense: overcoming the dichotomy not only between the external and internal security, the traditional goal of the EU, but also ensuring resilience of both physical and digital environment. Specific tasks and Action Plans proposed by the Commission in addition to the strategy are studied as well.
Valery Zhuravel “Icebreaker race in the Arctic.” Analytical papers №31, 2020 (№214)
On June 9, 2020, the US President Donald Trump signed the Memorandum on «Safeguarding the National Interests of the United States in the Arctic and Antarctic Regions». The author analyses its contents, and mechanisms of development of the modern US polar fleet. The paper provides comparative description of current icebreaker fleets in the United States, Russia and a number of other states. It is noted that, if the Memorandum is implemented, the US role in the Arctic region in the next 10-15 years may strengthen significantly, affecting the social economic development and defense capability of Russia in the Arctic direction.
Vladimir Vernikov “Tourists won’t scare Coronavirus in Spain.” Analytical papers №30, 2020 (№213)
Spain is one of the EU member states most affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Its government, having underestimated the risks associated with the spread of COVID-19, started implementing necessary restrictive measures with significant delay compared to most European states. Only on March 14 the toughest in Europe barriers to the spread of the disease were introduced, including large fines for violating the quarantine regime. This has borne results, but the country has suffered not only irrevocable human, but also huge economic losses. This paper analyzes the content of anti-crisis measures of the Spanish government and provides a forecast of their consequences. It is concluded that the authorities are unlikely to cope with the worst of them on their own in the coming years and will be heavily dependent on the EU assistance.
Vladislav Belov “Economic and political agenda of the German Presidency of the EU Council.” Analytical papers №29, 2020 (№212)
From July 1 to December 31, Germany will be the President of the EU Council. It will largely determine the socio-economic development of the European Union, facing the most serious challenges in its post-war history caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The main tasks that Berlin will have to solve in close cooperation with Brussels include: adoption of the EU budget and a large-scale program for restoring the European economy in context of energy transition and digital transformation; settlement of Brexit; resolution of a number of economic issues in relations with the United States and China. The paper analyzes the planned measures and assesses the prospects of their implementation.
Kira Godovanyuk “Start of US-UK trade negotiations.” Analytical papers №28, 2020 (№211)
Early May 2020 saw the start of the UK-US online trade negotiations. The deal was designed as a new milestone of the “special relationship”. But the negotiations seem to face a serious challenge caused by the US protectionism as the inherent part of the America First concept. In the meantime, the UK government wants to demonstrate a quick success of its foreign economic policy. There is a possibility that the negotiating parties in London and Washington may compromise on a mini-deal, which regulates some particular trade issues, serving at the same time as a symbol of the strong special relationship.
Vladislav Belov “The largest conjunctural program of the German government in the post-war history.” Analytical papers №27, 2020 (№210)
In early June, the German government's Coalition Committee approved the largest program of market-oriented assistance to economy in the post-war history, with a total amount of 130 billion euros. Its goal is not only to lead the country out of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, but also to increase investment in digital and energy transformation – the basis of the European green deal. The author analyzes contents of the package, efficiency of the proposed measures, consequences for party-political processes and prospects for the German economy's recovery from the crisis.
Natalia Kondratieva “The work of the EAEU institutions in the context of the Coronavirus crisis.” Analytical papers №26, 2020 (№209)
The author assesses the rapid response of EAEU institutions to the initial stage of corona crisis. An analogy is drawn with the monetary crisis of 2014-2016, which led to significant reduction of the Union’s total GDP. The institutions focus on balancing the measures aimed at localizing the pandemic with the measures aimed at liberalizing the regime of mobile workers and movement of targeted goods. Another focus is on shifting target trade flows inside the group. The trend for deeper integration is likely to continue by limiting unilateral actions, coordinating policies, and maintaining the principles of internal market organization, first of all, the freedom of movement of factors and results of economic activity.
Oleg Okhoshin “Coronavirus in the United Kingdom: a look at Celtic regions.” Analytical papers №25, 2020 (№208)
COVID-19 pandemic became a serious test for the United Kingdom, which in early May 2020 took the second place in the world in the number of deaths from coronavirus. This grim statistics is largely associated with the mistakes of the British government, led by B. Johnson, which had not properly assessed the scale of threat and did not respond to it in time. The Committee COBRA, which co-ordinates actions of government bodies in response to national or regional crises, declared that the country was prepared for the fight against pandemic, but the UK government announced lockdown only on March 23, having lost the time to contain it. Unlike London the UK devolved administrations pursued proper steps to protect the health of the population and developed measures to combat the pandemic and economic damage caused by it after consultation with the central authorities.
Lyubov Shishelina “The impact of the pandemic on Central European politics and the economy.” Analytical papers paper №24, 2020 (№207)
The article analyzes the problems in Central European societies caused by measures aimed at fighting COVID-19. In most cases, the opposition has criticized the governments’ actions and sought to derail them. It happened in Slovakia, where the measures outlined by the previous government were hindered not for the benefit of citizens. In the Czech Republic, the opposition brought the dispute with the Minister of Health to court. In Poland, the victim of the pandemic was the presidential election, when the government failed to offer a clear solution to the problem in the allotted time. In Hungary, amid criticism of the government's tough decisions, quarantine measures were much more liberal than in neighboring countries. Nevertheless, driven by moderately favorable indicators of the virus spread, Visegrad countries started to lift the quarantine in early May. The attention is now focused on saving the economy. Brussels’ forecasts are pessimistic. As the population is highly concerned about the future, the governments have to make generous promises. The first results will be visible in the third quarter of 2020.
Sergey Fedorov “Prospects for the formation of a ‘government of national unity’ in France.” Analytical papers №23, 2020 (№206)
Overcoming the dire consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in France will be a challenge for the country's leadership. Mobilization and cohesion of the whole French society will be required. In current conditions, President Macron and his team intend to develop a new political course that could unite all the constructive forces of the country. In this regard, the idea of forming a "government of national unity" is being actively discussed in France. The author considers the attitude of various political forces of the country to this idea and evaluates the prospects for its implementation.
Kira Godovanyuk “The United Kingdom between Brexit and the pandemic: an international dimension.” Analytical papers №22, 2020 (№205)
The coronavirus pandemic challenges not only the UK domestic security, the NHS system and the level of public trust in the authorities. The global self-isolation regime has updated the international agenda. The UK withdrawal from the EU has opened a new page of British foreign policy. It is the COVID-19 pandemic, however, that will be a catalyst for the UK foreign policy strategy. The author explores the UK approach towards key international actors such as the US, China, Russia. It is concluded that the post pandemic UK will be adjusting its foreign strategy to a new world order with high level of information confrontation. The coronavirus crisis will speed up the development of UK policy strategy towards China and correct the UK-US “special relationship”.
Vladislav Belov “FRG: party and political life in the context of a pandemic.” Analytical papers №21, 2020 (№204)
The scandalous elections in Thuringia's Landtag in early February 2020 had a significant impact on the party and political processes in Germany, primarily in the people's parties forming the government of the "Grand Coalition". In March, intra-party discussions faded into the background, giving way to the unification of all political forces in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. The CDU/CSU and SPD received unconditional support from the opposition in the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, which immediately approved the government's anti-crisis package. But since the second half of April, political competition has once again gained momentum, marking the beginning of an informal campaign for seats in the future composition of the lower house of the federal parliament.
Mikhail Vedernikov “Slovakia's new government: first month in office.” Analytical papers №20, 2020 (№203)
Fighting with сoronavirus in Slovakia goes along with significant political transformations, caused by coming to power of the new government led by I. Matovič. Being an irreconcilable fighter with his predecessors, members of «Direction – Social Democracy» party, the new PM has not eased the pressure and continues to use anti-Direction rhetoric in his activities. In the present crisis, as shown in the article, such an approach is counterproductive. Moreover, the first month of the new government’s operation was marred by conflicts between its members.
Elena Ananieva “Coronavirus in Britain.” Analytical papers №19, 2020 (№202)
The UK government initially adhering to the herd immunity concept later was drawn to the concept of self-isolation taking measures belatedly. In April it was revealed that official statistics were understated and the impact on economy was severe. The state of NHS becomes an issue of national security. Still the UK is not going to prolong talks with the EU on future relations and engage in joint EU measures to counter the COVID-19 pandemic.
Vladislav Belov “COVID-19 as a mirror of Germany's digital transformation.” Analytical papers №18, 2020 (№201)
Digital transformation has been the «poor child» of German government for several years. Despite numerous initiatives, pacts, programs and rulings of the Grand Coalition, in power since December 2013, Germany's world rankings in terms of digitalization are significantly inferior to other leading industrial states. The crisis caused by coronavirus pandemic has exposed the existing deficits in digitization political and economic processes in Germany. This paper analyzes the current state and prospects for further development, including the context of cooperation of Germany and Russia.
Olga Shimanskaya “State-Church relations (European experience).” Analytical papers №17, 2020 (№200)
The article provides comparative analysis of development of European and Russian legislation on state-confessional relations and use of sacred concepts in preambles of constitutions. It is emphasized that introduction of sacred words into legislature draws attention of lawmakers and law enforcers to the Christian cultural values historically inherent in Europe. The main models of stateconfessional relations are identification, separation and cooperation. Since they were formed in modern Europe, they are constantly being adjusted in accordance with public inquiries: migration, general population crisis caused by coronavirus.
Roman Lunkin “Orthodoxy in the fight against coronavirus and in opposition to the government.” Analytical papers №16, 2020 (№199)
The article analyzes the impact of coronavirus pandemic on the Church-State relations and activity of religious associations. Religious institutions express their loyalty to the demands of authorities in general but some aspects require special approach from officials and politicians. Different Christian confessions showed deep engagement in social service and ability to mobilize resources to help to people in need. The basic reason of conflicts between the clergy and officials is withstanding of religious worldview and neoliberal secular ideology. It was possible to avoid conflicts in the situations when representatives of the state arranged personal contacts with church leaders. Resolution of the problems mainly depends on the skills of authorities to find the balance in relations with believers.
Petr Oskolkov “Populism and Coronavirus: How the pandemic impacts Europe's right-wing populist parties.” Analytical papers №15, 2020 (№198)
The COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious challenge not only for the public health and economy in the EU, but also for the political field. Different political forces try to coin their own behavioral strategies in the pandemic situation. The success of those strategies will depend on further development of the crisis. The author analyzes the effect and possible consequences of the coronavirus spread in the world for right-wing populist parties of the European Union. The author attempts to answer whether populism may benefit from the situation, pass a crash test in crisis situation and regain power prior to regular national elections.
Olga Potemkina “The European Union: restricting the movement of citizens as a means of combating COVID-19.” Analytical papers №14, 2020 (№197)
The author analyses three groups of measures the EU has taken to counter the spread of COVID-19 pandemic: reintroduction of internal border control, intra-EU travel bans, restrictions or bans on entering the EU. The EU leaders initially did not intend to impose such measures and called upon Member States to coordinate their actions only when they started imposing restrictions unilaterally. These bans are legitimate by a number of EU legal acts, but their practical implementation will be very difficult.
Vladislav Belov “New industrial strategy of the European Union.” Analytical papers №13, 2020 (№196)
1On March 10, 2020, the European Commission (EC) published three documents forming the EU's new industrial strategy, replacing the previous one adopted in May 2017. Their main idea is to increase the competitiveness of the EU's economic and political space at the expense of industrial sector undergoing environmental and digital transformation. The EC pays special attention to industrial ecosystems, new alliances, breakthrough technologies, the role of small and medium-sized businesses, as well as removal of existing obstacles for business in the single domestic market. The author analyzes the main provisions of the new strategy, assesses their essence and prospects for implementation.
Ludmila Babynina “Coronavirus: What the European Union can and is doing.” Analytical papers №12, 2020 (№195)
The spread of coronavirus in Europe has naturally led to responses from national governments. Many EU countries accused the European Union of inaction. But the functions and capabilities of the European Union are clearly limited in the Founding Treaty. The author analyzes what exactly and in what areas the EU is able and already doing to combat the coronavirus and its consequences, where its actions are the most effective and what consequences have resulted from unilateral actions of member-states.
Lyubov Shishelina “Visegrad countries: State responsibility in the fight against the pandemic.” Analytical papers №11, 2020 (№194)
The article analyzes the approach of Visegrad countries to fighting COVID-19 pandemic. It is clearly different from the pan-European mobilization strategy, demonstrating greater responsibility of the relatively young EU members for their population. Compared to Germany, France, Italy, Spain and other «core» EU countries, caught up in fighting the pandemic by themselves, the resolute approach of Budapest, Warsaw, Prague and Bratislava provokes criticism from both the Brussels establishment and officials of some countries. Perhaps, the recent experience of Visegrad countries' active fighting against uncontrolled migration explains their determination to halt the «invisible migration» of coronavirus.
Roman Lunkin “The future of European identity amid the Coronavirus crisis.” Analytical papers №10, 2020 (№193)
The article analyzes possible impact of coronavirus pandemic on the European identity. The struggle with the virus indirectly intensified the problems of EU solidarity, national sovereignty, perception of national traditions, culture, religion. The transformation will alter the attitude to political correctness, identity policy and minority rights, revise the values of globalization for the sake of national interests of each country. The author concludes that the European solidarity will rebuild itself in dialogue between countries and ordinary people. And the struggle with the virus will become an integral part of historical memory of the Europeans.
Valery Zhuravel “On the new state policy of Russia in the Arctic zone until 2035.” Analytical papers №9, 2020 (№ 192)
On March 5, 2020 President of Russia V.V. Putin approved the Basic Principles of State Policy in the Arctic Zone until 2035, an important strategic planning document in the field of Russian Federation national security, aimed at protection of Russian national interests in the Arctic region. The author analyzes directions and tasks of the state policy in the Arctic for the next 15 years. It is noted that their comprehensive implementation will contribute to the quality of life of people in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, improve socio-economic development of the country, increase its defense capability in the Arctic region.
Denis Zelikson “Energy Confrontation in the Eastern Mediterranean: Greece's Stance.” Analytical papers №8, 2020 (№191)
In January 2020 Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed a deal on building a subsea pipeline to carry natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe (EastMed). The pipeline is aimed at diversifying EU energy import and strengthening its independence, especially to the Southeast Europe. However, high technical demands and costs suggest that the project has a political meaning as well. By using the discussion around EastMed, Israel and Cyprus wish to engage the EU and US in constraining the Turkish influence in the region. On the contrary, Greece does not have such a political goal and emphasizes the exceptionally peaceful and economic nature of the deal.
Mikhail Vedernikov “Parliament elections in Slovakia.” Analytical papers №7, 2020 (№190)
On February 29, 2020, regular parliamentary elections in Slovakia brought drastic changes to the country's political life. They marked the end of political dominance of SMER – social democracy party, who had been in power since 2006. Victory was celebrated by the movement of Ordinary people (Obyčajní ľudia a nezávislé osobnosti), that managed to achieve significant success due to the promises to fight corruption. In turn, the results were unexpected for liberal parties, who, according to pre-election research, were the main contenders in formation of the new government. However, the inconsistency of their actions led to the fact that one of the favorites – coalition of Progressive Slovakia (Progresívne Slovensko) and Together (Spolu) parties – failed to enter the Parliament.
Marina Kolesnikova “Contours of the EU Maritime Policy 2020: Presidency of Croatia in the EU Council.” Analytical papers №6, 2020 (№189)
In January 2020, Croatia presented to relevant Committees of the European Parliament the priorities of its presidency in the Council of the European Union, included in the national program. The initiatives proposed by Croatia demonstrate the EU's commitment to greening and digitalization, including the maritime sector. This paper analyses further directions and prospects for the development of its individual areas, in particular, the Blue Economy.
Oleg Okhoshin “United Ireland: Sinn Fein on track to prepare for referendum.” Analytical papers №5, 2020 (№188)
On February 25, 2020, a public meeting of Sinn Fein was held in Dublin, which planned for a poll on a united Ireland. If the result is positive, the party will have good reason to demand the organization of a referendum from the British government. Against the backdrop of recent events, it is clear that Sinn Fein's positions have strengthened – her northern wing, led by Michelle O'Neill, managed to conclude an agreement with the Unionists and restore the work of the Northern Ireland Assembly in January 2020, and the southern wing, led by Mary Lou MacDonald, took second place in the Irish general elections in February 2020. The Sinn Fein plan of a united Ireland becomes even more feasible while the United Kingdom is engaged in negotiations with the EU.
Vladislav Belov “ ‘Nord Stream 2’ in the context of the Munich Security Conference.” Analytical papers №4, 2020 (№187)
In a report published on the eve of Munich Security Conference (February 14-16, 2020), experts focused on the risks associated with Nord Stream 2 project. They mostly repeated the points that official Washington had consistently voiced since mid-2017, justifying the «fair and objective» nature of sanctions against the project participants. The main idea: Russian gas supplies through the 3rd and 4th lines of offshore gas pipeline threaten the energy security and sovereignty of the European Union, principal partner of the United States, and therefore the United States themselves. Discussions around Nord Stream 2 continued at the conference, revealing lack of consent between American and European participants. In this paper, the author analyzes actual discussions in Munich, as well as the state and prospects of one of the largest projects of Gazprom and its partners in Europe.
Olga Potemkina “The European Union in search of the perfect governance system.” Analytical papers №3, 2020 (№186)
This policy brief is timed to the start of preparations for the Conference on the Future of Europe, designed to become a platform for bringing together the views of EU institutions, Member States, and, most importantly, to ensure direct participation of EU citizens in the discussion of EU priorities for medium term. The author analyses positions of the European Parliament, Commission and Council, presented on the eve of inter-institutional negotiations, and discovers significant differences in the views of EU institutions, which will undoubtedly make it difficult to develop and adopt a joint Declaration. The main stumbling block is the amendment of the Treaty on the European Union for institutional reform. The European Parliament insists on it, while the EU Council has not expressed any enthusiasm in this matter.
Leonid Khodov “On the financial challenges of the new European Commission.” Analytical papers №2, 2020 (№185)
On December 1, 2019, the new European commission came to power led by former German defense minister U. von der Leyen, appointed by European parliament. The former commission led by J.-C. Juncker had some achievements over 5 years. But quite a few unresolved problems remain, namely: need for financial mechanism improvement due to poor economic situation in Europe, unfinished brexit, social tensions, growth of NATO member states defense expenses. This articles dwells on the financial tasks facing the new European commission.
Vladislav Belov “Thuringia: a new political earthquake in Germany.” Analytical papers №1, 2020 (№184)
On February 5, 2019, the Landtag of the Federal Land of Thuringia, contrary to predictions, elected as the prime minister not Bodo Ramelov of the Left Party, but the representative of the Free Democratic Party Thomas Kemmerich. This was due to the votes of the CDU, the FDP and the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is in opposition at both the land and federal levels. For other parties, it is non-handsshakable. This has prompted widespread criticism of the cooperation of regional Christian and Free Democrats. The paper analyzes the background of events and their implications for the German political landscape.
